The Quik Pro Champ? Bottle Makes Up Some Stats

Jay Bottle Thompson

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Updated 1002d ago

Hopefully you legends have had enough time to come down after last week’s event at Trestles. What an epic contest it was, Jordy captured his first world tour victory for the 2014, and John John Florence showed us that it is humanly possible to surf a wave like it’s a skate park. With only three events remaining on the calendar, it’s time to get down and dirty like Hugh Hefner.

Slater managed to snivel a few cheeky points on Medina’s monstrous lead. However, it’s going take a lot more than that. Kelly has been in this predicament many times in his career, I will bet my last brass razoo he has already crunched the numbers. He knows exactly what he has to do to claim his 12th world title.

Anything can happen in those French beach breaks

I am struggling with my predictions for the Quiksilver Pro France. I think to myself “Anything can happen in those French beach breaks, they are as unpredictable as Lindsay Lohan’s sex life”. After pondering on it for a while, I decided to go back into the archives, finding previous champions over the last decade.

I will give you the statistics over the last 10 years, and you can decide for yourself.

Interestingly enough, as unpredictable as the beach breaks are in France, the statistics on overall dominance of that event are quite astounding. So rather than giving my opinion on what athlete is ripping and will go on to win the event. I will give you the statistics over the last 10 years, and you can decide for yourself who is most likely to take out the event for 2014.

Keep in mind my statistics are based on a quarterfinal result or better and a few are bit dubious. I have not considered the number of athletes from each region. And just in case you get bored with statistics, I have slipped in a few fun facts about France.

Kelly has only won here once

Quiksilver Pro France 2012 winner - Kelly Slater

Based on the last decade, Kelly Slater has a 90% chance of making the quarterfinals or better. However, if you are picking Kelly for the win, think again because he has only won the event once, giving him a 10% history of winning.

Over the last decade, 84% of the athletes who've got a 5th place or better have been regular footers (I understand there are less goofies on tour so this is probably statistically insignificant).

*The distress call “mayday” comes from the French for help me: M’Aide.

Joel Parkinson has had great success in France, three semifinals and one victory, giving him a 40% chance of a 5th or better. With that one scalp attached to his his belt, he has the same winning history as Kelly Slater.

Gabriel Medina is the only goofy to win the Quik Pro over the last ten years. Giving the goofies a 10% chance to take out the event.

*Croissants were invented in Austria.

Since John John Florence has been on tour he has accumulated a 5th or better at the Quik Pro. Ladies and gents, that’s a 100% strike rate. Problem is that this little freak is yet to win. You do the math.

Experience on tour has prevailed in the past. Wildcards are yet to be sprayed by the fake Dom Perignon on the podium. So, if you have money on Dane Reynolds to upset the applecart, the odds are looking pretty grim.

*In 1386, a pig was hung in France for the murder of a child.

Back in 2011, Gabriel snatched the snails and frog legs from underneath everyone, winning the Quik Pro. He is the only rookie to have won this event over the last decade. On top of that, he placed 2nd last year and made another quarterfinal. Medina has 100% strike rate for getting a 5th or better.

Australia are dominant and Mick is reigning champion

Quiksilver Pro France 2013 winner - Mick Fanning

Australian's have been dominate in France, winning six out of ten finals (a 60% win rate). The USA has had three (two of those wins, are owned by our long lost brother Andy Irons back in 2004 and 2005). Brazil has a bit of catching up to do, sitting on just the one win.

*If you are feeling a bit parched from all the ham and cheese baguettes, beers are available from McDonalds in France.

Mick Fanning has the best odds to win the event. He has won the event 4 times and placed 2nd back in 2006. That gives the 3 Time World champ, an 80% chance of winning if he makes it to the quarterfinals. This is Mick’s most favourable event on tour.

If Jordy Smith wins, there’s a 100% chance the ASP will fine him $50,000 if he wears his Red Bull cap on the podium again.

Sorry to say, but the European statistics are looking about as attractive as a 90-year-old's haemorrhoids.

Sorry to say, but the European statistics are looking about as attractive as a 90-year-old's haemorrhoids.

Over the last decade there has only been a few athletes pulling their weight. Giving the Euros a tiny chance of making the quarterfinals or better. Let’s hope ‘The Spartan’ unleashes some more brutality and bumps up these poor stats as he is as close to an event winner in 2014 as the Europeans have right now, even though he is from Tahiti.

*One punishment for an adulterous wife in medieval France was to make her chase a chicken through town naked.

Going off the stats, Our pudgy mate from Western Australia, Taj Burrow, has a 50% chance of getting a 5th place or better, giving him some cracking odds.

I want to see Jeremy Flores dig his way out of the trenches and take a win on his home turf.

I am 98% finished this post.

There you have it, a few crucial statistics and some French trivia. Hopefully I didn’t confuse you as much as I confused myself.

Personally, I want to see Jeremy Flores dig his way out of the trenches and take a win on his home turf. But looking at the stats I would have a better chance scoring a Tinder date with the Queen of England.

Until next time, Mangez bien, riez souvent, aimez beaucoup. Translation: “Eat well, laugh often, love abundantly."

Bottle